トランプの外交政策の整理.jpg

Donald Trump
Trump’s worldorder: election
win brings fears ofa
combustible US foreign DolicV
軍事介入はできるだけできません
Vance, for instance has argued: “From Iraq to
Afghanistan, from the financial crisis to the
Great Recession, from open borders
stagnant
wages_
the people who govern this country have
failed and failed again?
He went on:
Furthermore, they failed because
they bought into
theory of the world that
forgot to put the interests of the US front and
centre. No longer. As Trump famously declared
back
In
2016 when he first won the White House
‘Americanism, not globalism
will now be our
credo。
私たちのイラクからアフガンまでずっと失敗しました。
理想世界の利益がないアメリカ
熟すことを最優先に
だから千人。
武器支援は、米軍が直接介入するのは減少しているように見える
こぼれる
ジュース
Peace through strength?
How Trump intervenes in the world now is a
matter
of debate within his circle of foreign
policy
specialists。 Jeremy Shapiro from the
European Council on Foreign Relations has put
them into three tribes
the restrainers, who
want the US to do as little as
possible, the
prioritisers, Who argue that distractions such as
Ukraine must be removed to focus on the Great
Power competition with China, and the
primacists, who insist the US must remain the
hegemonic power throughout the globe, and
ceding any status to the
powers
Brics
would be fatal.
ウクライナの手節と幼稚な方は、
最大の敵である中国近隣の東アジアに配置。
期待は今です
ビジネス
Elbridge Colby says Trump will take a pragmatic approach
alliances
Photoaraph: Dominic Gwinn/Middle East
naqeslAFPIGetty
This assertion of peace through strength comes
with
価格タグ。 She says
would require a
“build-uP of US military force not seen since the
last decade ofthe cold war”. That necessitates
prioritising, the key theme ofthe 2018 Trump
national security strategy in which Elbridge
Colby had
key role.
Colby insists Trump will not oppose alliances
per se but `
them as less values-driven and
もっと
private business partnership
in which
both sides aim to have their commercial self-
interest satisfied
Ifthose partnerships become
inequitable; or the US feels it is being fleeced,
then they can be broken.
コルビーの主張：同意は価値で可能ではなく、互いに利害関係に基づくビジネス的
関係。
互いの利害関係が正しい場合、
アメリカの動機
と不平等な関係だと思ったり、またはアメリカが東望国に背中を食べると思ったら
同志はいつでも壊れる可能性があります
ウクライナは幼稚園を支援します。
By contrast,
lead candidate to be Trump s
national security adviser; Richard O Brien
writing in Foreign Affairs, said he supported
ウクライナ so
as Europe
もっと
something
itfeels it is already doing.
He wrote: cTrump’ s approach would be to
continue to provide lethal aid to Ukraine,
financed by European countries, While keeping
the door open to diplomacy with Russia
and
keeping Moscow off balance with
degree of
unpredictability. He would also push Nato
To
rotate ground and air forces to Poland to
augment its capabilities closer to Russia s border
and to make unmistakably clear that the alliance
will defensa all its territory from foreign
aggression。
cIf Europe wants to show thatit is serious about
defensaing Ukraine, it should admit the country
to the European Union immediately; waiving the
uSua
bureaucratic accession
protocol?
ウクライナのように守りたいならアメリカ
違うのではなく、お金で
国武器司書支援し、狩猟連合にウクライナ加入させろ。
NATOは軍事です
もっと多くの種
ヨーロッパ
already pointing out that, as of June,
23 of Nato’s 32 members had met its target of
spending 2% of GDP on defence, twice as many
as four years ago. But Colby; who believes the US
should focus its energy on China, says that
ヨーロッパ
however indebted, will have
spend
still more In this narrow regard, he and
Emmanuel Macron think alike
Part of the problem is that the EU has
demonstrated its
unwillingness
conduct a
common foreign policy, as evidenced by its year-
long division over Palestine, divisions born of
national histories
流暢なので気にする時間がないので、NATO諸国は防衛ビートルgdp 2％以上
安くなければなりません。
減らし、国防費の苦い話。
イスライル無知性サポート
Those divisions will allow Trump,
partnership
with Benjamin Netanyahu, to ignore the
resolutions ofthe UN, which both men hold in
contemDt
Netanyahu Will have
freer hand to
obliterate Hamas and form an Israeli-led
administration in Gaza
The sporadic US pressure on Israel to back
tWO
state solution, encouraged by Saudi Arabia, will
dissipate。 Trump told Time magazine:
There
Was
time when
thought twO states could
work=
国連総会を無視して
[スラエル語
全面的なアメリカの後輩
米軍
rising
view
long
paid

8. イラン超強硬制裁
Instead, O’Brien says, Iran and those who trade
with Iran will once again feel the heat of
maximum sanctions pressure, the policy
devised by Stephen Mull, now appointed to be
the head of Trump transition at the State
Department. Iran in turn will debate in its more
isolated circumstances whether the fatwa on
possessing nuclear weapons should be lifted.
But there will be a tension. Some in the
administration will back the Greater Israel
project. Others will want Saudi to normalise
relations with Israelin a further extension ofthe
Abraham accords, Trump’ s signature first-term
foreign policy achievement.
イランと貿易する第3国も超強力経済制裁ハケットだとしただけにこのような経済的孤立
はもっと可視化
9.
中国 中国 中国
Focus on China
All ofthis is for a single purpose
tofocus laser-
like on the
coming challenge of China, and what
Colby has referenced as “the cosmic role of the
dice” , the decision facing China on whether to
invade Taiwan. The sense that China is the pre-
eminent strategic threat shines through the
thinking of the entire Trump policy circle, many
of whom advocate the complete decoupling of
the two economies_
Beijing may have drawn comfort from Trump s
recent proclamation that “Taiwan doesn’t give
us
anything”
even though the US, which he
likened to the mafia, gave them protection. But
Beijing knows that is not a green light.
そして、この幼稚園と中東での米軍の最小化と同望国が一人分になる
で軍隊規模を増やすということの最終目的は中国対応。
Cumulative private sectorinvestmentin
Al, 2013-2023
2013-2023
米国。
$335 .26
中国
103
76
イギリス
22
3b
イスラエル
12
8b
カナダ
10
6b
ドイツ
10
46
インド
9b
France
8
36
South Korea
7 。 3b
Singapore
6 。 3b
Data: S8P Global; Chart: Axios Visuals
2013 – 2023年10年間の主要国人工知能投資額：事実上、米中ツトップ体制]
中国と覇権競争で勝つか、マヌナがまさにアメリカの国運オール決定し、さらに進む
アメリカがAl時代が開幕する前の歴史最後の覇権国として残るか、または衰退する
それなりに板の粗いと見ているから
TREND (1980-2029)
Billions of US.ドル
40 thousand
30 thousand
20 thousand
10 thousand
2024
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
SELECTION (2024)
United States
29.17 thousand
China People’s Republi 18.27 thousand
ドイツ
4.71 thousand
Japan
4
07 thousand
United Kingdom
3.59 thousand
France
3.17 thousand
ロシア連邦
2.18 thousand
Korea Republic of
1.87 thousand
[アメリカ中国ドイツ、日本、イギリスフランスラッシュヤ韓国GDP]
事実上、中国以外には米国に全落の脅威が月ほどの国はないと見ている中